Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 24.087577 26.236055 28.558563 31.267751 34.356431 37.786171 41.907951
2025-12-28 20.554815 23.479512 26.867679 31.130708 36.420666 42.864681 51.461409
2026-01-04 18.189735 21.552346 25.664991 31.169089 38.510271 48.225205 62.533970
2026-01-11 16.579869 20.238844 24.919316 31.522675 40.912220 54.328916 76.100190
2026-01-18 15.127269 18.901854 23.905361 31.274960 42.334661 59.236692 89.227383
2026-01-25 13.993562 17.834216 23.082932 31.110551 43.756744 64.332630 104.176807
2026-02-01 13.098152 16.984716 22.441473 31.076124 45.303621 69.881913 121.838988
2026-02-08 12.306986 16.198036 21.790349 30.909093 46.555844 75.135972 140.947239
2026-02-15 11.615122 15.488894 21.173002 30.695359 47.655181 80.312262 162.161018
2026-02-22 11.005901 14.849022 20.594211 30.459010 48.647928 85.481574 185.955510
2026-03-01 10.503335 14.328502 20.149192 30.384081 49.908556 91.508782 215.611507
2026-03-08 10.050303 13.849543 19.725719 30.289139 51.099762 97.685440 249.943683
2026-03-15 9.847067 13.751986 19.924166 31.356330 54.901411 111.447485 323.633213
2026-03-22 9.399756 13.242037 19.402267 31.041202 55.744767 118.063094 377.282101
2026-03-29 9.039352 12.848441 19.045689 30.999431 57.193178 126.901650 453.463558
2026-04-05 8.768178 12.581495 18.883428 31.313604 59.521897 139.274981 570.852776
2026-04-12 8.427895 12.180559 18.456834 31.051821 60.430897 147.657224 682.616724
2026-04-19 8.128291 11.830239 18.094571 30.881714 61.542556 157.271579 831.292347
2026-04-26 7.870328 11.535492 17.810963 30.844322 62.995095 168.863082 1041.757228
2026-05-03 7.612791 11.227854 17.482854 30.677562 64.080875 179.704555 1299.637410
2026-05-10 7.366840 10.927790 17.149300 30.465423 65.012228 190.528210 1632.100170
2026-05-17 7.134212 10.639681 16.820226 30.231279 65.848555 201.542794 2072.964678
2026-05-24 6.936178 10.402567 16.572819 30.157007 67.149880 215.629488 2775.698753